Effects of Climate Change and External Climate Policies on Domestic Politics

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Climate change is having profound a profound impact on domestic politics, both through its direct effects and the policies that international organizations and other states implement in response to it. This panel explores different dimensions of climate changes’ indirect and direct impact on domestic politics and policy. Three papers examine indirect effects. First, Benveniste, Moravcsik, and Oppenheimer analyze aspirational goals within international environmental agreements, such as the 1.5 degree warming goal in the Paris Agreement. Using a nested case study design, they find that these goals can influence policy change when combined with mobilized coalitions. Ingles, Son, and Tingley examine how externalized climate policies impact the target countries, drawing on the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Their findings show that institutional capacity in the target country is a key source of variation in these externalized policies having a positive influence. Looking at another form of international carbon finance, Sanford and Garcia test for strategic behavior in the implementation of anti-deforestation programs. They detect some anticipatory response through temporary increases in deforestation, but promisingly do not find evidence of strategic enrollment in the program. In terms of direct effects, Kennard, Balcazar, and de la Cuesta use newly-harmonized survey data to show that climate shocks impact people’s perceptions of government trustworthiness and effectiveness. They further show that climate shocks are positively associated with electoral turnout and anti-incumbent voting behavior. Beacham, Hafner-Burton, and Schneider complement this work by arguing that climate change has pernicious consequences for the quality of democracy in countries because it both increases instability and reduces governments’ capacity to effectively address that instability. They find that climate shocks are strongly associated with democratic backsliding, and that compounding experiences with natural disasters are associated with democratic breakdown. Together, these papers advance our understanding of differential responses to climate change and its downstream consequences, revealing important sources of variation at both the international and domestic levels.

Sub Unit

• Division 39: Science, Technology, and Environmental Politics

Cosponsor

• Division 16: International Political Economy

Individual Presentations

• Why Would Aspirational Goals Matter in Global Environmental Governance? - Hélène Benveniste, Stanford University; Andrew Moravcsik, Princeton University

• Border Adjustment Mechanisms and Domestic Institutional Capacity - Tayla Belle Ingles, Harvard University; Dustin Halliday Tingley, Harvard University; Rochelle Sun, Harvard University

• Jurisdictional REDD+ and the Potential for Strategic Behavior - Luke Sanford, Yale University; Alberto Garcia, Yale University School of the Environment

• Impacts of Climate Change on Public Perceptions across Africa and Latin America - Amanda Kennard, Stanford University; Carlos Felipe Balcazar, New York University; Brandon de la Cuesta, Stanford University

• Climate Change and Democracy - Christina J. Schneider, University of California, San Diego; Emilie Marie Hafner-Burton, University of California, San Diego; Austin Beacham, Georgia Insitute of Technology

Chair

• Matto Mildenberger University of California Santa Barbara

Discussant

• Patrick Bayer University of Glasgow