Nuclear Politics, Experimental Research, and the Korean Peninsula

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Experimental research is opening new frontiers to study nuclear proliferation, disarmament, and nuclear weapons use. This panel advances our understanding of these topics with papers that leverage survey experiments in South Korea – a U.S. ally facing a nuclear neighbor, and whose public overwhelmingly supports developing an independent nuclear arsenal. Challenging the conventional wisdom that nuclear guarantees help temper the desire of allies to acquire nuclear weapons, Sukin shows qualitatively and quantitatively how credible nuclear guarantees by the United States can counterproductively increase its allies’ desires to develop nuclear weapons. Kim, Ryu, and Whang examine how the credibility of nuclear guarantees affect an ally’s preferences for three nuclear options: independent nuclear weapons, the patron sharing nuclear weapons, and nuclear latency. Son explores how the experience of surviving a nuclear attack affects foreign policy preferences regarding nuclear weapons by studying South Korean nuclear bomb survivors from Japan. Cho and Petrovics examine how an adversary’s nuclear doctrine and capabilities impact both nuclear proliferation desires and the effectiveness of counterproliferation tools by fielding survey experiments in South Korea. Finally, Ko evaluates South Korean public attitudes towards global nuclear disarmament. These papers shed new light on nuclear politics on the Korean Peninsula and beyond.

Sub Unit

• Division 19: International Security 

Chair

• Nicholas Miller Dartmouth College

Discussant

• Stephen Herzog Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey

Individual Presentations

• Past Traumatic Experience and Formation of Foreign Policy Preferences - Sangyong Son, New York University

• How Credible Security Guarantees Backfire - Lauren Sukin, London School of Economics

• Risks to Extended Deterrence and Public Support for Nuclear Armament - Hye-Sung Kim, Appalachian State University; Jeheung Ryu, Ewha Womans University; Taehee Whang, Yonsei University

• Nuclear Proliferation and Counterproliferation: An Experimental Approach - Ariel F.W. Petrovics, University of Maryland; Hyun-Binn Cho, College of New Jersey

• South Korean Public Attitudes toward Global Nuclear Disarmament - Jiyoung Ko, Korea University