Public Opinion under Autocracy: Evidence from Russia during War

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Research over the last 20 years has established the importance of public opinion for politics in modern autocracies. A separate line of important work has explored the dynamics of public opinion during war primarily drawing on evidence from the United States. These two streams of research have rarely been in contact as we have little data on public opinion during war in an autocracy. This panel brings together these two important bodies of research using original data from a panel survey conducted in Russia before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, the Putin regime was a classic example of an informational autocracy. It was not particularly ideological and relied on popular support, more than mass repression, to stay in power. This panel examines the extent to which the war has changed this categorization. Bryn Rosenfeld reports findings from the first comprehensive study of sensitivity bias in regime support, and support for a cornerstone regime policy, in an autocratic setting. Ora John Reuter explores how public support for Vladimir Putin has changed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 paying special attention to the groups who support Putin as well as the intensity of their support for Putin. Henry Hale uses panel data to examine theories about rallying around the flag. Timothy Frye explores the determinants of public support for the war drawing from the broader literature. These papers draw heavily from a unique panel survey which spans Russia’s launching of its 2022 invasion, first interviewing a very large nationally representative sample of Russian citizens in December 2021 and reinterviewing a large share of them again in 2023. Crucially, this enables us to identify who has changed their answers on questions designed to capture Putin’s favorability and attitudes toward the conflict in Ukraine. The results have important implications for regime stability in Russia, public opinion under autocracy, and the study of public support for war.

Sub Unit

• Division 13: Politics of Communist and Former Communist Countries

Individual Presentations

• Wartime Rallying-around-the-Flag: Panel Survey Findings from Russia, 2021-23 - Henry E. Hale, George Washington University

• The Putin Coalition: Understanding the Bases of Regime Support during Wartime - Ora John Reuter, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

• Sensitivity Bias in Regime Support: Panel Surveys in an Autocracy at War - Bryn Rosenfeld, Cornell University

• Autocratic Politics and War Support: Evidence from Russia - Timothy Frye

Chair

• Danielle Nicole Lussier Grinnell College

Discussant

• Anton Shirikov University of Kansas