Elite Behavior and Public Opinion in Eastern Europe

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel brings together research from across eastern Europe to study how anti-democratic behavior at the elite level – both in the present and past – affects public opinion. Their papers address various elite-led processes that may be viewed as threats to democratic stability: historical repression, economic inequality, media capture, and conspiratorial rhetoric. How does the public perceive these issues, and how do they influence the way people engage with politics – whether directly or indirectly? Under what conditions do these factors threaten democratic stability – e.g., by demobilizing voters or encouraging them to endorse illiberal values – and under what conditions might these actions paradoxically strengthen citizen engagement with the democratic process?

The four papers in this panel address these questions by drawing on public opinion surveys conducted in a range of eastern European democracies, including Ukraine, Poland, and Hungary. Isabelle DeSisto’s paper takes a historical perspective, asking how experiences of repression by communist authorities continue to affect patterns of political participation across the region. This topic is especially relevant when considering Russia’s war against Ukraine, which has brought to fore memories of past repression. Silviya Nitsova’s work also uses insights from history – specifically, wartime experiences in the 20th century – to help us understand public attitudes toward redistribution during wartime. Focusing on contemporary Ukraine, she asks how wartime conditions and the behavior of individual oligarchs affect public support for redistribution. The next two papers focus on elite messaging and democratic backsliding in Ukraine’s neighbors: Poland and Hungary. Courtney Blackington and Frances Cayton study how incumbent political elites invoke conspiracy theories to cultivate popular support for policies that undermine the electoral process. Hanna Folsz investigates how opposition parties shift their electoral strategies in response to incumbent media capture, and how the public responds. These latter two studies call our attention to the interplay between incumbents, opposition, and the public in fragile democratic settings. All four papers suggest that the effects of elite behaviors on public attitudes depend significantly on political context: the nature of the incumbent regime, the presence of external threats, and reactions by other elites. Further, they suggest that potential threats to democracy from above may be met with public resilience at the citizen level.

The papers in this panel offer theoretical contributions toward important debates in the political science literature, from historical legacies to elite cues. They also offer timely insights into the dynamics of public opinion in eastern Europe during a contentious political moment. In the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine and ongoing threats to democracy in neighboring countries, it is crucial to pay attention to what people want their political system to look like and what role they see for themselves in it. By presenting research on how a diverse array of elite-led issues affect public opinion, this panel provides a window into the challenges, but also sources of optimism, in eastern European democracies today. It does so by highlighting survey evidence from across the region: Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, and in cross-national perspective. Finally, our panel is composed of a mix of graduate students, junior scholars, and senior scholars across a variety of institutions.

Sub Unit

• Division 13: Politics of Communist and Former Communist Countries

Individual Presentations

• Intergenerational Effects of Communist Repression in Eastern Europe - Isabelle DeSisto, Princeton University

• Public Support for the Super Rich: Evidence from Ukraine at War - Silviya Nitsova, The University of Manchester

• Efficacy of Conspiracy Theory Communication Strategies: Evidence from Poland - Courtney Blackington, University of Pittsburgh; Frances Cayton, Cornell University

• Opposition Campaign Strategies and Voter Reactions in Democratic Backsliding - Hanna Folsz, Stanford University

Chair

• Lenka Bustikova University of Florida

Discussant

• Maria Popova McGill University