New Voting Patterns? Generational Shifts in Vote Choice

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

The growing literature on new cleavages in Western democracies has yet to understand new patterns of voting behavior. While there is a growing interest in how vote choice differs across generations, many questions remain unanswered. Whereas some have argued that older cohorts feel threatened by the rise of liberal values and are therefore more likely to support populist parties, others have presented evidence to the contrary. If we look at turnout, the old vote in much higher numbers than the young, but among the young, the educational divide in turnout is much more pronounced – and it is unclear if the rise of populist parties changes this. To better understand these patterns, we need to consider how generations interact with other socio-demographic factors.
For example, how generation cohort, gender, and education work together to shape party choice is not yet fully understood. While the globalization cleavage appears to pit those with higher levels of education against those with lower levels, there are marked differences within each group, and these appear to be particularly pronounced among younger voters. More educated women vote disproportionately for the New Left/Green parties, while younger men are more likely to support liberal or center-right parties. Men with lower levels of education vote for right-wing populist parties in much higher numbers than women or the highly educated.
In this panel, we want to discuss whether new patterns of voting behavior are emerging and how they relate to the debate about democratic backsliding and support for democratic values. For example, to understand whether authoritarian-populist parties are here to stay, it is important to know their support base. If it is the old who vote for these parties, their success may be a temporary episode, but if it is the young who vote for them disproportionately, this assumption seems less justified. Similarly, if Green parties are parties of a certain generation, the prospects for long-term success are lower than if they find support among the (growing) group of better educated citizens. We are most interested in papers that examine the interaction of different socio-demographic factors in explaining voting behavior and that compare differences within groups over a longer period.

Sub Unit

• Division 36: Elections and Voting Behavior

Chair

• Gary Marks UNC - Chapel Hill

Discussant

• Armin Schäfer Johannes Gutenberg University

Individual Presentations

• An Emerging Age Cleavage? - Ruth Dassonneville, Universite de Montreal; Ian McAllister, Australian National University

• Generational (Re)alignment: Emerging Issues and New Voters in Western Europe - Thomas Jocker, University of Amsterdam; Wouter Van der Brug, University of Amsterdam; Roderik Rekker, Radboud University (Nijmegen, the Netherlands)

• Educational Realignment: An Analysis of Voter Trends over Time and Generations - Roderik Rekker, Radboud University (Nijmegen, the Netherlands); Hilma Agnes Maria Lindskog, Gothenburg University

• The Generational Education Divide and the Transnational Cleavage - Nils Steiner, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz; Armin Schäfer, Johannes Gutenberg University