Unconventional Victories: Origins, Consequences, and Resilience of Rebel Success

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Under what conditions do rebels prevail over dominant government authorities during civil war, and what explains the resilience of these unconventional victories? This panel brings together a series of papers drawing from a range of methodological approaches to explore the varieties of rebel behavior during and after civil war. Together, the papers offer novel theories explaining insurgent resilience and success, in addition to introducing new qualitative and quantitative data on rebel behavior. Robinson conceptualizes and measures a previously unexplored type of external state support — state-sponsored rebel group formation — and tests its impact on rebel capabilities and conflict dynamics. Drawing upon global conflict data and rebel strategic documents, Irajpanah explores the post-World War I rise in insurgent victories with a focus on the diffusion of guerrilla warfare as a strategic norm in asymmetric wars. Which rebel organizations capture the spoils of governance after insurgent victory? Krause analyzes the determinants of regime capture after regime change in insurgencies from 1916 to the present. Ashley, examining global conflict and regime type data and the case of Uganda, finds that guerrilla strategies, dramatically, give rise to durable post-war authoritarian regimes. Finally, Wagner explores episodes of unconventional conflict termination and finds that the characteristics of stalemates explain the durability of informal peace.

Sub Unit

• Division 21: Conflict Processes

Individual Presentations

• The Guerrilla Origins of Authoritarian Durability - Sean Paul Ashley, Dartmouth College

• Small Arms and Influence: The Normalization of Guerrilla Warfare - Katherine Irajpanah, Harvard University

• To Which Victor Go the Spoils? Regime Capture after Regime Change - Peter Krause, Boston College

• Foreign Foundations: The Role of Foreign States in Armed Group Formation - Kaitlyn Robinson, Rice University

• Fading Out: Persistent Stalemates and Informal Peace after Civil War - Wendy Wagner, University of California San Diego

Chair

• Megan A. Stewart University of Michigan

Discussants

• R. Joseph Huddleston Seton Hall University

• Jason Lyall Dartmouth College