Local Ballots, Global Ties: U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations in the Presidential Vote

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel focuses on the role of international relations in the pivotal 2024 Taiwanese Presidential Election. Combining both experimental and observational analysis of social media data, the papers in this panel explore attitudes toward U.S.-Taiwan-China relations and its influence on political decision-making.

In the first paper, Weifang Xu and Mark Souva examine how the U.S. policy shift toward “strategic clarity” could influence attitudes by employing parallel survey experiments in China and the U.S. as a rare view into attitudes outside Taiwan. The second paper by Shu An Tsai explores how U.S. military commitments, such as those in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, shape Taiwanese public opinion toward U.S.-Taiwan cooperation. The third paper by Tracy Weener, Herbert Chang, and Yusaku Horiuchi analyzes Taiwanese voters' preferences and perceptions 7 days before the presidential election held in January 2024. They will discuss how domestic and foreign policy issues, including cross-strait relations and misinformation, influenced voter choices. The fourth paper by Herbert Chang, Sunny Fang, and Austin Wang investigates how U.S.-Skepticism misinformation shapes online engagement and a new form of misinformation that targets international relations rather than presidential candidates. The fifth paper presented by Kuanchen Lee analyzes survey before and after the 2024 election to show how the election impacts the public opinion in Taiwan.

With these case studies occurring before, during, and after the election, the panel aims to bring a comprehensive examination of international relations, domestic policies, and the evolving geopolitical strategies in the region. The panel will leave ample time for questions and discussion, especially regarding common themes with other countries in the largest election year in history.

Sub Unit

• Related Groups / Conference Group on Taiwan Studies

Individual Presentations

• Deterrence or Provocation? Effects of Strategic Clarity on Conflict over Taiwan - Weifang Xu, Florida State University; Mark Souva, Florida State University

• US Military Commitment & Audience Costs: Taiwan’s View on the Ukraine-Russia War - Shu-An Tsai, SUNY Buffalo; Kelly Matush, Florida State University

• Conjoint Analysis of the 2024 Taiwanese Presidential Election - Tracy Weener, Dartmouth College; Ho-Chun Herbert Chang, Dartmouth College

• U.S.-Skepticism: Transnational Misinformation in the 2024 Presidential Election - Ho-Chun Herbert Chang, Dartmouth College; Yu Fang, Barnard College; Austin Horng-En Wang, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

• The Dragon or the Eagle? Examining Taiwanese Strategic Shifts Post-2024 Elections - Kuan-chen Lee, Institute for National Defense and Security Research

Chair

• Hsin-Hsin Pan Soochow University

Discussants

• Yusaku Horiuchi Dartmouth College

• Atsushi Tago Waseda University