War, Leaders, and Public Opinion

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Over the past two decades, international relations scholars have increasingly paid attention to the role of leaders in international security and conflict. An initial wave of scholarship focused on questions of whether leaders matter, with recent research now turning to the study of “how.” Relatedly, a long-standing literature on public opinion and foreign policy emphasizes the role of domestic audiences in conflict behavior. How do internal conditions affect leader decision-making, and to what extent are leaders affected by domestic shifts before, during, and after war? Conversely, how do leaders and domestic audiences learn from experiences during and after periods of war? This panel brings together scholars in these two research traditions to understand the interplay between leaders, elites, and the public in the initiation, conduct, and outcomes of war. Papers offer new theoretical and empirical insights into the mechanisms by which publics and leaders navigate the sources and consequences of foreign policy. This panel also contributes to the study of the sources and consequences of leader decision-making and an understanding of democratic constraint in the study of foreign policy. Alam investigates the role of domestic culpability and dispositional conditions on leader time horizons in foreign policy. Tomz and Weeks consider when voters will emphasize foreign over domestic policy on the ballot. McManus, Yang, and Zhao explore if certain combinations of threats affect Taiwanese public support for foreign policy concessions. Schub, Jost, Kertzer, and Min expand our understanding of leadership by examining the role that advisors play in leader decision-making in foreign policy. Finally, Maxey focuses on the determinants of public perceptions of foreign policy, and how leaders may frame certain foreign policies towards the public.

Sub Unit

• Division 20: Foreign Policy

Individual Presentations

• Time Horizons and Foreign Policy Termination - Maryum Alam, The Ohio State University

• When and Why Do Voters Care about Foreign Policy? - Jessica L. P. Weeks, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Michael R. Tomz, Stanford University

• Balancing Long and Short-Term Goals: Survey Evidence from China-Taiwan Relations - Roseanne McManus, Pennsylvania State University; Yang Yang, Pennsylvania State University; Lingbo ZHAO, Pennsylvania State University

• Advisory Influence in Foreign Policy Decision-Making - Robert Schub, Rutgers University, New Brunswick; Tyler C. Jost, Brown University; Joshua D. Kertzer, Harvard University; Eric Min, UCLA

• Constructed Success: How Leaders Manage Perceptions of Intervention Outcomes - Sarah Maxey, Loyola University Chicago

Chair

• Elizabeth Nathan Saunders Columbia University

Discussants

• Roseanne McManus Pennsylvania State University

• Joshua Schwartz Carnegie Mellon University