Election Forecasting across the Globe: Evolutions, Challenges, and the Future

Session Submission Type: Roundtable

Session Description

Election forecasting is one of the fastest growing areas of political science, and one of the most publicly visible. As the field has evolved to emphasize well-developed models, it has also expanded in important ways, covering not just American presidential elections, but elections at all levels across the globe. From parliamentary systems and semi-presidential systems in Europe, including the UK, Germany, and France, to transitioning democracies in Latin America, forecasting has expanded and evolved in important ways. Many other countries, especially those with scarce resources, are ripe for rigorous model-based forecasts. In this roundtable, we discuss how forecasting has evolved and changed, the challenges forecasting faces in different contexts, and potential solutions to expand who, where, and how we forecast elections.

Sub Unit

• Related Groups / Political Forecasting Group

Chair

• Michael S. Lewis-Beck University of Iowa

Presenters

• Mary Stegmaier University of Missouri

• Charles P. Tien CUNY, Hunter College & The Graduate Center

• John Kenny University of East Anglia

• Andreas Erwin Murr University of Warwick

• Debra Lynn Leiter University of Missouri-Kansas City