Development and Conflict in the Era of American Withdrawal

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

A half-century after the British closed its outposts “east of Suez,” the United States continued an equally momentous withdrawal in the Greater Middle East. It is an open question as to whether the departure of US troops from Afghanistan on 30 August 2021 will prove to be a geopolitical watershed on par with 1971. What is clear, however, is that the chaotic pullout and ensuing collapse of the US-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has acquired a totemic significance in analyzing global and regional orders. From Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 to the HAMAS attacks of 7 October 2023, some of the deadliest and most consequential armed conflicts have erupted against the backdrop of superpower retrenchment and -- as the APSA conference theme makes clear -- the ostensible retreat of US-promoted democratic values and the advance of counterprojects, by states and non-state actors.

The assembled papers home in on the problem of wars and political development in the wake of America’s post-9/11 invasions and occupations. Addressing the intersection of IR and comparative politics, the authors apply rigorous methods and original research to answer broad questions that interest scholars, policymakers, and laypersons. To what extent has the shift from direct military occupation to lower risk “light footprint” interventions (via remote systems and local surrogates), reduced the intensity and scale of violence in targeted countries? Has the retrenchment of US military, and in some cases diplomatic, involvement coincided with a greater space for self-determination? If so, have more locally driven political solutions generated freer and more stable orders, highly repressive autocracies, or some other regime form? Finally, in a world that is no longer under unquestioned US hegemony but hardly “post-American,” what agency have regional powers and their subordinates exercised to advance their preferences at home and in their neighborhood?

Sub Unit

• Division 12: Comparative Politics of Developing Countries

Individual Presentations

• Domestic Regime Change vs. FIRC: Lessons from beyond Afghanistan and Iraq - Jason Brownlee, University of Texas at Austin

• Not Little Sparta: Military Politics and Domestic Constraint in Kuwait - Pete W. Moore, Case Western Reserve University

• The Persistence of Precarious Sovereignty in the Post 9/11 Era - Dipali Mukhopadhyay, Johns Hopkins University SAIS

• Describing the “Other” in Conflict: Evidence from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine - Daniel Silverman, Carnegie Mellon University; Anna O. Pechenkina, Utah State University; Austin Knuppe, Utah State University

• Repression and Collaboration: The Arabian Gulf in Comparative Perspective - Sean Yom, Temple University

Chair

• Lisa Anderson Columbia University

Discussants

• F. Gregory Gause Texas A&M University

• Sarah E. Parkinson Johns Hopkins University