The 2024 Presidential Election: Understanding Its Meaning and Consequences

Session Submission Type: Roundtable

Session Description

The 2024 presidential campaign is traversing a fractured electorate driven by deep ideological rifts, negative partisanship, and identity silos. The two major political parties continue to struggle for clarity on questions of electability and competitiveness as Election Day looms. A panel of renowned presidential scholars considers the conditions of the 2024 presidential election and scrutinizes the implications of possible outcomes. Ideological fracturing, continued negative partisanship, and collective trauma are being compounded by the influence of divisive politics. The 2024 presidential campaign operates under unprecedented circumstances cast by shadows of the federal indictments of a major party’s presidential candidate. The campaign continues to be tinged by the fact that several GOP rank and file are unwilling to directly rebuke former President Trump over fears of alienating a key voting bloc. Both major parties continue to struggle with deep seated ideological and identity rifts on the enduring questions of electability and competitiveness. The roundtable will delve into questions on topics including campaign expectations, candidate performance, and forecasting models. Other questions to be treated include how third-party candidate(s) might be influencing the race? How will state level changes to voting laws impact participation? Should reforms to the electoral system be considered? The roundtable delivers celebrated expertise, unique perspectives, and varied approaches for interpreting the election and what these results could mean for the next administration.

Sub Unit

• Division 36: Elections and Voting Behavior

Chair

• Kevin M. Baron Siena College

Presenters

• Julia Rezazadeh Azari Marquette University

• Nathaniel A Birkhead Kansas State University

• Christopher John Devine University of Dayton

• Gbemende Johnson University of Georgia

• Heather E. Yates University of Central Arkansas