The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait: Can the Yizhou Dilemma Be Resolved?

• In Event: Deciphering Chinese Politics and Foreign Policy: New Empirical Analysis

Abstract

The analysis of Beijing’s intent toward Taiwan has existed ever since the nationalist government moved to Taiwan during the yet-to-end civil war in China, but the speculation of a potential war has increased significantly in the past few years. This research adopts a multi-prone approach to triangulate and compare elite assessments from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington. In addition to analyzing dozens of Taiwan-themed elite focus group discussions, we surveyed and interviewed about 150 elites from the three sides from August 2022 to February 2024 to compare their perceptions of the risks and assessment of the current situation. We then develop a new theory drawing from the 3rd-century battle of Yizhou during the Three Kingdoms period in China and use the “Yizhou Dilemma” to explain the 21st-century geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. In a tripartite interaction involving a hegemony, a rising power, and a valuable but weaker actor endowed with ample resources and intangible assets crucial for the rising power's advancement and the hegemony's reinforcement, direct conquest is not in the rising power’s interest due to the potential for significant casualties and resource loss. On the other hand, the path to hegemony is constricted when the rising power faces the challenge of navigating its relationship with the valuable weaker actor as a prelude to reaching hegemonic status. As a result, potential military actions are expected to be minor and symbolic, focusing on the satellite territories of the weaker actor, thereby affirming the rising power’s credibility and willingness to employ force without incurring significant military, economic, and political costs.

Authors

• Taiyi Sun, Christopher Newport University

• Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, Sam Houston State University