State-Level Forecasts for the 2024 US Presidential Election

• In Event: Forecasting the 2024 US Elections: Presidential and Congressional Models

Abstract

In this paper, following the path set by Rosenstone and others, we develop a forecasting model for 2024 which draws on data from the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia since the 1980 presidential election. This State-by-State Political Economy Model (2SPE Model) produces vote share forecasts for the two major party candidates in every state which can then be used to make a projection of the Electoral College result. The 2SPE model considers the geographical dimension of presidential elections including the pattern of ideological voting since 1952, the President’s job approval and the local unemployment rate. Jackknife out-of-sample forecasts for previous elections (1980–2020) are also provided.

Authors

• Bruno Jerome, University of Paris II Pantheon Assas

• Veronique Jerome, University of Paris Saclay

• Philippe Mongrain, University of Antwerp

• Richard Nadeau, University of Montreal