Economic Expectations and Election Forecasting: Presidential and House Models

• In Event: Forecasting the 2024 US Elections: Presidential and Congressional Models

Abstract

The role of the economy in election outcomes has been questioned in recent US presidential races. My model has shown that how voters feel about their economic future is a significant predictor of presidential and House election outcomes. How well has a prospective economic voting model performed over the last few election cycles? What is is forecasting for 2024?

Author

• Brad Lockerbie, East Carolina University