The Role of Economics in Political Unrest in Africa: Wealth versus Inequality

• In Event: Emerging Scholars Lightning Round: Undergraduate Research

Abstract

Existing research on political instability agrees that economic factors are important predictors of unrest events; however, scholars debate which factors are most important. Some argue that growth and modernization are major triggers for protests and riots, while other studies focus on poverty or inequality as better predictors. To address this debate, I use protest and riot data from all African countries, taken from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Project, and match this data to the PRIO-GRID geospatial structure. I test whether overall cell-level wealth (my modernization measure) and cell-level inequality (my relative deprivation measure) predict the presence of unrest events. I find that cells that are poorer, wealthier, and farther away from their country’s average are at a lessened risk of experiencing unrest, affirming theories that suggest the importance of cost-benefit calculations and the middle class in the prediction of political unrest.

Author

• Kylie Michelle Hammack, Oklahoma State University