Iowa Electronic Markets: Forecasting the 2024 U.S. Elections

• In Event: Forecasting the 2024 US Elections: Presidential and Congressional Models

Abstract

Since 1988, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) have run real-money, internet-based futures markets where contract prices for political election outcomes reveal information about those future election outcomes. The IEM has established a track record of accuracy in predicting presidential, House, and Senatorial elections From prices, we produce forecasts for the presidential popular vote and for seat distributions for the House and Senate.

Authors

• Thomas S. Gruca, University of Iowa

• Thomas Rietz