Domestic Sources of the Green Belt and Road and Its Geopolitical Implications

• In Event: Chinese Politics Mini-Conference: China’s Role in International Relations and Its Worldwide Impacts

Abstract

“China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) faced environmental backlash shortly after its launch in 2013. Yet, starting in 2019, there has been a notable shift in BRI’s official policy towards promoting high-quality and sustainable development, and by the end of 2023, clean energy took center stage BRI’s energy projects. What has driven the green transition in the BRI framework? Does the Green BRI alleviate or aggravate geopolitical tensions between China and the West?

While externally focused explanations provide logical context for China’s green BRI, we posit that domestic factors are the main impetus for this policy evolution. And among the probable and multi-faceted internal motivations, our primary hypothesis centers on the surplus capacity within China’s green industries—including solar, wind, electrical vehicles (EVs)—and related sectors. We contend that the growth of these green energy sectors has outpaced domestic consumption in recent years, and with restrictions from Western markets, the BRI regions have become essential for mitigating this excess capacity. Two key observations have underlined our argument. Firstly, BRI projects are financed by China, and there is real financial calculation behind them, making it less likely that green projects are mere vanity ventures, especially during times of economic strain (Ye 2020). Secondly, for the green BRI to take root, Chinese corporate actors must have buy-in, and private firms have dominated the renewable energy sectors (NDRC 2022). China Inc. are guided by cost-benefit analyses, aligning with market logic (Tan 2021).

Authors

• Min Ye, Boston University

• Zeying Wu, Lingnan University

• Jiaqi Wang, UNC