Exploring Exit-Voice Dynamics under Democratic Backsliding

• In Event: Live under Democratic Backsliding: National Security Law in Hong Kong

Abstract

Traditional theories based on Albert O. Hirschman’s exit-voice framework suggest that citizens
are likely to exit a polity rather than voice when confronted with deteriorating political
conditions, yet loyalty may compel them to tolerate the circumstances. However, there is scant
empirical evidence showing how, and what type of, loyalty influences emigration decisions. This
article revisits the concept of loyalty, proposing a relational perspective that focuses on citizens’
perceived differences with others in their political community. We argue that perceived
alienation from one's political community significantly shapes citizens’ decision to emigrate. By
analysing survey data from protesters who participated in Hong Kong's 2019 Anti-Extradition
Movement, we find that citizens who perceive themselves as having a stronger sense of civicness
relative to the average citizen are more likely to harbour stronger intentions to emigrate.
However, only a stronger sense of civicness measured in absolute terms suffices to predict
whether an individual has actually emigrated. These findings support our claim that relational
loyalty matters but also reveal nuances between emigration intention and the actual decision to
emigrate. They will also be of interest to Taiwan scholars given that many Hong Kong citizens
have migrated to Taiwan in recent years.

Authors

• Gary Tang

• Samson Yuen, Hong Kong Baptist University