Judicial Repression and Opposition to Autocracy: Evidence from Hong Kong

• In Event: Live under Democratic Backsliding: National Security Law in Hong Kong

Abstract

Autocratic governments have been relying on domestic judicial institutions to crack down on
political dissidents. However, little is known about whether dissidents comply with judicial
repression, and whether judicial repression of dissidents incites opposition or enforces
obedience among the wider citizenry. In this proposed study, I empirically examine these
questions in the context of Hong Kong, where more than 2,300 protesters have been charged
since the failed democratic uprisings in 2019. I collect original data from the District Court of
Hong Kong to assess how dissidents respond to political trials, and design a survey experiment
that tests the attitudinal and behavioral consequences of providing citizens with truthful
information about the severity of judicial repression. The results will help us better understand
autocrats’ motivation to judicialize repression, drawing parallels with historical instances such as
Taiwan’s White Terror period.

Author

• Ruilin Lai, Washington University in St. Louis