Liberalized Authoritarianism Is Not a Stable Equilibrium

• In Event: Live under Democratic Backsliding: National Security Law in Hong Kong

Abstract

China’s repressive policy turn on Hong Kong following the eruption of the Anti-ELAB
movement in 2019 has been explained by various approaches. For instance, the rise of Xi Jinping
as a personal dictator has been popularly regarded as the key factor for China’s new policy
toward Hong Kong. This paper regards the repressive turn as the outcome of regime breakdown.
Preceding the breakdown were three decades of state-society contention involving complex
dynamics between the party-state, local elites, political opposition, and civil society. On the one
hand, opposition parties strived to push for democratization by playing the nested game of
democratization by election. On the other hand, the party-state “manufactured” a political order
by effectively guarding against elite rupture and strengthening its institutional infrastructure for
electoral mobilization. The result was a stalemate that frustrated both the party-state and the
political opposition, generating destructive negative dynamics between a strong authoritarian
state and a strong civil society. Hong Kong represents an important showcase for the instability
of liberal autocracy under protracted democratization, confirming Huntington’s (1991) famous
contention that “liberalized authoritarianism is not a stable equilibrium; the halfway house does
not stand” (174-175).
Hong Kong and Taiwan share an important condition of being confronted with the strong power
of the Chinese Leninist party-state, which has a long history of penetrating society and managing
elites. The party-state has been a significant player in the politics of both places. The study of
how the Chinese party-state plays a role in manufacturing a political order in Hong Kong,
including choreographing elite formation, building its institutional infrastructure for electoral
mobilization, as well as meddling with opposition politics, will be of great relevance for Taiwan
politics.

Author

• Eliza W. Y. Lee, University of Hong Kong