Great Expectations, Betrayed: Autocratic Legacies and Electoral Violence

• In Event: Historical Legacies of Violence in Democracies

Abstract

How do authoritarian legacies shape political violence in democracies?

In this paper, we explore the relationship between autocratic legacies and electoral violence in emerging democracies. Moving beyond existing theories that emphasize the dramatic transformation of authoritarian parties post-democratization, his paper argues that these parties often maintain significant characteristics from their previous tenure in power.

Crucially, the paper nuances the strength of autocratic parties in emerging democracies by categorizing it into “endogenous strengths” (internal cohesion) and “exogenous challenges” (external threats). Specifically, the paper suggests that autocratic legacies lead to high “endogenous strengths” in these parties, manifesting as robust membership, cohesion, and capacity for large-scale operations. However, these efficient internal mechanisms often falter in transitioning to democratic contexts where they are less effective in winning elections and securing power. This creates a paradox where the parties, unable to harness their internal strengths in a democratic framework, often resort to electoral violence as a means to gain power.

Our analysis includes a cross-national time-series examination, utilizing country-year data for all states that transitioned to democracy between 1940 and 2010, and compares this data with the Electoral Contention and Violence (ECAV) records from the same period. Additionally, on a subnational level, we examine state-wise variations within India from 1985 to 2007. Our preliminary findings suggest that former autocratic ruling parties, capitalizing on their legacy of comprehensive policy-making expertise, robust organizational structures, and a record of economic and military successes, are adept at transforming these advantages into internal mechanisms that boost their capacity for mobilizing electoral violence. These early successes often influence institutions in ways that disadvantage new parties and political actors, further consolidating the influence of former autocracies in the new democratic landscape.

This research addresses critical issues for developing democracies, particularly in uncovering how autocratic histories influence the establishment and evolution of political party systems (Loxton and Mainwaring 2018; Riedl 2014; Hicken and Kuhonta 2011; Friedman and Wong 2008). The lasting impact of an autocratic past extends beyond the democratic transition, influencing public attitudes towards democracy (Bernhard and Karakoç 2007; Rose, Mishler, and Haerpfer 1998), shaping social policy decisions (Carnes and Mares 2009), and affecting the stability of democratic regimes (Miller 2015).

Author

• Jihun Park, Yonsei University