Rally around Treaties: Effect of Arms Control on Presidential Approval

• In Event: US Foreign Policy

Abstract

This paper looks at the effect of signing arms control treaties on US Presidential approval. While the rally literature has looked at when and how armed conflict, sanctions, or other forms of coercion can influence support for an executive, less work has been done on cooperative acts of foreign policy. Drawing on existing literature, we argue that major cooperative acts like arms control can generate support for a President by reducing the perception of threat and demonstrating competence to a public. We test this on monthly time series data of US Presidential approval and the signing of major arms control treaties, finding empirical support for our argument.

Authors

• Brian Lai, University of Iowa

• Adam Lappe, University of Iowa

• Eric Ngo, University of Iowa