Democratic Shifts & Reproductive Policy Dynamics: A Time Series Analysis

• In Event: Democratic Backsliding

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between regime transformations and reproductive rights policies in high-income countries, with a focus on understanding the directional influence of these variables.
Regime transformations, including both democratic backsliding and shifts towards democratization, significantly impact a range of policies, notably those governing reproductive rights, which encompass sexuality education, contraception, abortion, assisted reproductive technologies, and pregnancy care. These rights are pivotal in determining individual autonomy and gender equality, serving as critical indicators of a regime's democratic nature. Despite their significance, the influence of reproductive rights in the context of political shifts has not been sufficiently explored in democracy research.
To bridge this gap, the study employs a quantitative analysis utilizing data from the International Reproductive Policy Database (IRPD) (Zagel, 2023) and the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset (Maerz et al., 2021), covering the period from 1980 to 2020 across 31 countries. This research is unique in its application of the Granger Causality Test within a time series framework, examining whether regime changes can predict alterations in reproductive rights policies and vice versa (Shojaie and Fox 2022).
The findings of this paper are expected to contribute significantly to the field of political science, particularly in understanding how political transformations influence and are influenced by reproductive rights policies. This research not only underscores the importance of closely monitoring political changes but also highlights the predictive power of regime transformations in shaping reproductive rights, offering valuable insights for policymakers and advocates in the field.

Author

• Nikolina Klatt, WZB Berlin Social Science Center