Can Climate Adaptation Break the Chains of Extreme Poverty?

• In Event: Climate Change and Development

Abstract

It has become commonly accepted in the social sciences that climate change will deepen the experience of poverty, increase poverty rates, and exacerbate inequality. This relationship has been supported by weak quantitative data and analysis. It is true that the warming of our planet presents grave threats to current modes of economic development, governance structures and security paradigms. However, the literature does not give enough weight to arguments that climate adaptation can break complex poverty traps and tackle the multiple dimensions of poverty.

This paper uses both OLS and Bayesian models to successfully identify both correlation and causal relationships between climate adaptation, poverty, and inequality for 149 countries. The empirical analysis compares national multi- dimensional poverty and inequality measures from the World Bank to adaptation planning using National Adaptation Plans submitted to the United Nations and adaptation outcomes using the Notre-Dame gain score for vulnerability and readiness.

The paper seeks to answer the question: "Can global warming break the chains of extreme poverty, unlike the conventional understanding that it will worsen it?" It appears the answer is yes. The paper presents evidence that an increase in climate adaptation is correlated with a decrease in poverty. This evidence can incentivize greater investment in climate adaptation policies and programs by governments and the international aid architecture.

Further, nations with high poverty levels are more likely to create adaptation plans which increase technical and financial assistance to the country, but adaptation has a greater impact on poverty alleviation in advanced industrialized nations. A higher income group is associated with a stronger negative relationship between climate resilience and poverty.

Author

• Cindy Ragab, American University