The Effect of Police Violence on Political Trust and Satisfaction with Democracy

• In Event: New Approaches to Attitudes toward Democracy and Its Institutions

Abstract

Does exposure to police violence influence political behavior and mass attitudes? A growing body of research, especially following recent salient police killings in the US, has shed light on this question. Morris & Shoub (2023) and Ang & Tebes (2021) show a mobilizing effect of police violence on voter registration and turnout, particularly in Black and Hispanic communities, while Markarian (2023) observes a localized decrease in voter turnout near such incidents. Boudreau, MacKenzie, & Simmons (2019) and Anoll, Epp, & Israel-Trummel (2022) find that police violence and racial disparities in policing significantly erode public trust in law enforcement. Reactions to police violence vary across racial and political lines, as Crabtree & Yadon (2022) and Reny & Newman (2021) demonstrate; White Americans and conservatives often maintain neutral or unchanged views, contrasting with the decreased favorability among low-prejudice and liberal groups. Additionally, Walker (2020) and Mullinix, Bolsen, & Norris (2021) indicate that policing experiences can prompt broader political participation and support for policy changes, like increased backing for body cameras.

Yet, gaps in the literature persist. Most research on police violence's effects on political behavior and mass attitudes focuses on the US, leaving its applicability in other contexts uncertain. Also, extant research primarily examines the indirect effects of high-profile police violence events, alongside the accompanying media coverage and elite messaging. These cues likely influence public opinion dynamics, making it unclear if exposure to police violence alone affects mass attitudes. Additionally, citizens' media diets, crucial for learning about such events, are determined by idiosyncratic political orientations and motivations, complicating the separation of self-selection from exposure effects. Moreover, while much research centers on indirect exposure to police violence, less attention has been given to personal police violence experiences, whether through vicarious experiences - experiencing events through another person rather than firsthand - or direct victimization. Finally, the negative effects of police violence on trust in law enforcement are likely to spill over into perceptions of other institutions like the Presidency, Congress, and the Judicial system, a topic overlooked in current literature.

Hence, to address these gaps, we ask whether direct and vicarious experiences of police violence negatively influence political trust and satisfaction with democracy. Additionally, we focus on Latin America, one of the most violent regions in the world, and zoom in on the Brazilian context. Furthermore, we leverage observational and experimental designs. In the first study, we carried out a vignette survey experiment with 1,000 Brazilian adults, presenting a manipulated news article depicting violent and non-violent police interactions with civilians. Additionally, we theorize that factors like white racial identity, anti petista partisan orientation, and high trait aggression might diminish susceptibility to vicarious police violence experiences. In the second study, we analyze LATAM and Brazil’s LAPOP survey data to assess the effects of direct police violence victimization on the same attitudinal outcomes, using structural equation modeling to estimate mediating effects.

Our findings indicate that both direct and vicarious experiences of police violence notably reduce political trust and satisfaction with democracy. In Study 1, participants exposed to the vignette depicting the violent police encounter displayed heightened distrust in the police and political institutions, and less satisfaction with democracy, when compared to the non-violent vignette. Additionally, we confirm the effects of all three theorized moderators. In Study 2, we observe that direct police violence victimization similarly erodes trust in the police and political institutions and leads to greater dissatisfaction with democracy. We also find that the impact of direct police violence experiences on democratic satisfaction is mediated through political trust and trust in the police. This project provides important insights into the consequences of state violence, public opinion dynamics, and the sources of legitimacy of democracy and its key institutions

Authors

• Vitória Sgorlon, Stony Brook University

• Ignacio Urbina, Stony Brook University