The Salience of SIDS in Conference of Party Decisions, 1995–2021

• In Event: International Environmental Action

Abstract

Is the climate discourse neglecting small island developing states (SIDS)? In 2015, the Conference of Parties Paris Agreement is considered as a breakthrough in establishing emissions goals to limit global temperature increases to below 2°C. However, climate change has dimensions beyond emissions reduction. SIDS face unique vulnerabilities due to their size, limited resources, and geographic dispersion. The UNFCC underscores this vulnerability, but is this reflected in COP decisions?

COP decisions are key for setting climate policy at the global level, enabling the key step of translating the latest climate science into actionable policy. While COP decisions often address technological transformation, climate financing, adaptation measures, and even specifics on forest management, recognition of the importance of ocean issues is noticeably lacking. This gap between climate policy and reality is puzzling, making any existing discussion of marine issues even more significant.

I hypothesize that COP decisions address SIDS concerns more frequently when tropical cyclone natural disasters are more prevalent the previous year, and once IPCC reports begin identifying specific risks to SIDS. Tropical cyclones can cause significant damage to SIDS that can briefly dominate the news cycle, raising the salience of SIDS issues on the global scale. The IPCC reports in 2014, known as AR5, focused on specific risks and climate impacts for SIDS and the policy dimensions of adaptation unique to these countries. I control for percent change in reported emissions by Annex I countries and log COP budgets to mitigate the effect of agenda changes after emissions-focused COP meetings. My intuition is that COP decisions are influenced by global trends rather than specific countries, such as host countries or great powers. Other possible variables of interest could be the global fishing take the year prior to COP as a proxy for global reliance on fish as a source of protein, and the global value extracted from ecosystem resources.

Theoretically, this paper advances the treaty institutional design literature in a significant way: by emphasizing the importance of treaties as a living document, not static at the point of founding. There have been few quantitative investigations into why treaties change over time. Yearly COP decisions are consensus documents that over time lead to landmark environmental treaties: the Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Accords, and Paris Agreement are treaties that were shaped by years of COP agreements before them. The STM content analysis should illuminate if this is a punctuated equilibrium, where topics become highly salient immediately before a treaty, or a gradual shift in salience for topics before a treaty. This paper also aims to highlight the importance of the SIDS in the climate discussion.

Author

• Kayla Morton, University of Washington