Struggling Economic Sectors and Democratic Backsliding in Japan, 1930-42

• In Event: Economic Interests and Elections

Abstract

This paper examines how economic interest groups respond to democratic backsliding and whether economic hardship fosters support for authoritarianism and expansionism. Utilizing a unique dataset of roll calls, resolutions, petitions, and proposals from the Imperial Japanese Diet, alongside newly digitized pre-war election and census records, the study analyzes the response of legislators representing regions or industries heavily impacted by economic downturns. The study specifically uses the severe crop damage in the Tohoku area in 1931 due to cold weather and the decline of textile and sericulture industries following the disturbance of American trade in 1939, and the rapid rise of prohibition/temperance movement in 1937 as economic shocks. A difference-in-differences design is applied, with pre-war census data and legislators’ affiliations with interest groups helping to pinpoint their connections to specific economic sectors.

The findings reveal that there was no clear link between economic distress and the rise of nationalist or authoritarian legislators in the elections of 1932, 1936, 1937, or 1942. However, legislators from the affected regions and sectors were more inclined to shift their stance in favor of authoritarian reforms and the weakening of the legislature between 1937 and 1942, coinciding with the army’s ascent to a dominant position. This pattern of change was not evident from 1930 to 1937, a period before the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War and when the army did not hold a controlling influence. The results suggest that these legislators might have been co-opted during the period of heightened military influence.

In a more detailed examination of petitions and proposal records in the Imperial Diet, it was found that legislators representing sectors impacted by economic shocks became markedly more active in these activities post-shock. Significantly, these connected legislators showed a higher level of activity compared to their peers following the substantial curtailment of legislative power in 1938 and 1940. As the legislature evolved into an institution that primarily rubber-stamped government-proposed budgets and laws, these legislators representing struggling sectors focused their efforts on introducing petitions and proposals. This approach enabled them to directly engage with government ministers on specific, often local, issues. The analysis suggests that these legislators acquiesced to the diminishing role of the legislature in exchange for preserving their access to the executive branch.

This study presents a focused case study on the sericulture and silk industries, which were the dominant export sectors in Japan in the early 1930s. Following the major disruption in trade with the United States and the United Kingdom, the two largest export markets for these industries, in 1939, legislators associated with these sectors became highly active. They introduced numerous acts, proposals, and petitions in the Diet, advocating for government intervention in silk purchases, distribution of silk garments to war heroes, promotion of silk clothing in occupied territories, and the development of a new "people’s clothing" that incorporated silk. Those petitions did not gain wide-spread support from other legislators.

Interestingly, while all these legislators were initially elected on an anti-army platform in 1937, the vast majority shifted their stance to support the army as they filed many petitions and proposals to promote silk. This shift coincided with the increasing militarization of the Japanese government and its policies. The evidence suggests that several of the proposals put forward by these legislators were indeed adopted and implemented by the executive branch as government decree.

Legislators are often expected to champion the specific interests of certain segments of society, whether they be defined by geographic location or economic sector. For many of these representatives, their primary role is perceived as serving the needs of their constituents rather than safeguarding democratic principles. While they might not actively seek to undermine democracy, they can become complacent or even cooperative participants in the face of democratic backsliding, especially if it aligns with the prevailing political currents.

This paper introduces a fresh perspective to the discussion of the rise of fascism and Nazism during the inter-war period and the economic recessions that accompanied it. It posits that the support for fascist movements may not have stemmed from the disillusionment and hardship of the general populace. Instead, it suggests that certain groups were prepared to compromise democratic values in favor of populist leaders, if it meant protecting their own narrow interests. This interplay between business interests and political dynamics offers a novel lens through which to examine the processes of democratic backsliding.

Author

• Makoto Fukumoto, Waseda University