Taiwanese Perceptions of US Credibility in the Taiwan Strait

• In Event: Public Opinion and Policy Formation in Taiwan

Abstract

For decades, the United States has maintained a stance of “strategic ambiguity” with regard to the Taiwan Strait. Although the Taiwan Relations Act states that the US would provide Taiwan with defense articles and services to bolster Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, the US refrains from officially declaring whether it would intervene in Taiwan's defense in the event of a Chinese attack, leaving room for speculation from both Taiwan and China. While some experts view this as a strategy to achieve "dual deterrence," preventing unilateral changes in the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, it is contended that the lack of clarity regarding the US security commitment to Taiwan may either lead to miscalculating US resolve or undermining US credibility. Consequently, the US needs to implement policies aiming at reaffirming its commitment to Taiwan when necessary. This study presents survey findings from nationally representative samples to systematically show how the Taiwanese perceive US credibility and how they evaluate different US foreign policies toward Taiwan in terms of ensuring Taiwan’s national security.

Authors

• Wen-Chin Wu, Academia Sinica

• Hsin-Hsin Pan, Soochow University

• James Lee, Academia Sinica

• Chien-Huei Wu, Institute of European and American Studies