Political Detachment and Revolution

• In Event: Political Transitions

Abstract

In this paper, I develop a dynamic, game-theoretic model to explore how citizens' detachment from the regime shapes the likelihood of a revolution. I argue that for collective action against the regime to occur, either of the following conditions must be met: (1) a sufficient number of citizens are detached from the political establishment, relying less on the regime for their income; (2) for citizens currently benefiting from a stable regime, the financial prospects of an alternative outside option should be high enough to compensate for the loss of income resulting from the regime's overthrow. Empirically, I utilize China's State-Owned Enterprise Reform (SOE Reform) to test my theoretical framework.

Author

• Jingyuan Qian, University of Chicago