More COPS, Higher Turnout?

• In Event: Historical Inequality and Current Day Political Engagement

Abstract

In recent years, proponents of the “Defund the Police” movement have called for scaling back police presence, pointing to the potential benefits of smaller police forces for Black and Latino Americans who suffer from over-policing. At the same time, however, policing’s role in deterring crime makes the effect of police numbers ambiguous, especially for Black Americans who are disproportionately exposed to criminal violence. What, then, is the effect of police on the political lives of Americans? I theorize that police indirectly affect voter turnout through their effects on crime. Importantly, I argue that Black Americans are uniquely positioned to benefit from reductions in crime. Using data from a natural experiment induced by the disbursement of a federal hiring grant to municipal police agencies, I find evidence that an additional police officer increases Black turnout by two percentage points. Additional analyses reveal that this increase can be attributed, at least in part, to reductions in criminal violence. Importantly, I find that the increased turnout among Black voters is driven primarily by Black men — the group most at risk of criminal victimization. This project speaks to the importance of incorporating criminal violence into our theories of the political consequences of criminal-justice policies and institutions.

Author

• Brandon Romero, University of Michigan