Did We See MAGA Coming? Tracking Partisanship, Religiosity in a Swing County

• In Event: Electoral Shifts among Key Constituencies

Abstract

Among a number of historic reasons, the 2008 presidential election will be remembered for the electoral clout of the religious right. The appearance of Sarah Palin on the Republican ticket not only provided material for SNL, she galvanized moribund conservative support for the GOP. Part of her strategy, highlighted in SNL satire, was an attack on the mainstream (“lamestream”) media. Palin, with evangelical roots, mobilized the religious right. Religious belief and behavior had already become important factors in explaining modern presidential elections (Green, 2007, p. 66).
Gov. Palin (Republican from Alaska) identified herself as a religious traditionalist, both by the frequency of her church attendance and by her alignment with other measures of the traditional position (see Green, 2007, p. 49-57). Palin’s positions were aggressively reported by the media, including blogs, and were promoted by her supporters. Gov. Palin’s attack on the mainstream media was a featured element of the vice-presidential debate. The 2010 mid-term elections, likewise, will be remembered for rise of the Tea Party movement, attracting both social and fiscal conservatives. Sarah Palin and other “grizzly mommas,” such as Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Michele Bachmann in Minnesota, helped galvanize the movement while they were lighting rods for the media (as well as Saturday Night Live parodies).
This paper is derived from studies of voter attitudes since 2008, focusing on patterns of religiosity, partisanship, and support of the Tea Party movement, as well as attitudes toward the media, media portrayal of candidates, and protections or restrictions on the media. General and primary election exit polling has been conducted in Jersey County, Illinois, since 1990 (though not every election primary or midterm election, and certain battery of questions were replaced depending on local and national issues and concerns).
Jersey County was one of the few swing counties in Illinois (most counties are consistently red or blue). In 2008, Jersey County narrowly supported the McCain/Palin ticket, overwhelming voted for incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Dick Durbin, and overwhelmingly voted for incumbent Republican Congressman John Shimkus. In 2010, Jersey County voted Republican for the state’s constitutional officers, but Democrat for key county officers, including county sheriff and county clerk. Today, all but eleven of the twelve country board members are Republican and by 2022 the county strongly supported state and national Republican candidates. Although rural, the county is within the standard metropolitan statistical region of St. Louis, Missouri, and can be considered an exurb.
Taking cues from literature on decline in party identification, role of strength of partisanship, and discoveries about the influence of religiosity (measured by frequency of church attendance), the surveys asked about partisanship, support of the Tea Party movement, church attendance, and other independent variables. Among the dependent variables were questions about voter attitudes toward media coverage of presidential and vice-presidential candidates, overall media behavior and bias, and attitudes toward media freedom and regulation.
This paper embraces two of the three strands in particular—religion and politics. Among the initial findings: support for the contention of a correlation between strength of partisanship and strength of attitudes about the media; support for the expectation that frequency of church attendance correlates to party and partisanship; and continued evidence of voter dissatisfaction with the media. One of the results of this combination of factors is that religiosity, measured by frequency of church attendance (rather than denomination), correlates with dissatisfaction with media in the 2008 campaign. These patterns, however, did not occur with the 2010 election voters, perhaps because of the homogeneity of the cohort, a result of the massive and lopsided turnout of conservative voters. The significant correlation among partisanship, religiosity (through church attendance), and support for the Tea Party has remained consistent in Jersey County through the 2012 election cycle, even as the county appeared to drift more Republican.
By 2016, the exit polling confirmed was the results were telling us. What once was a swing county is no more. By 2022, eleven of the twelve county board positions are Republican (and many have signaled, either in public statements or campaign documents (ads, palm cards, yard signs) specific alignment with former President Donald Trump.

Author

• John W. Williams, Principia College