The Icing on Top? An Empirical Study of Subnational Dibao in China

• In Event: Poster Session: Public Policy & Society, Extremism, and Democratic Backsliding
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Public Policy

Abstract

The Chinese central government has proposed governance objectives centered around social equity, such as poverty alleviation, to address the social contradictions arising from the widening wealth gap. Meanwhile, research on the expansion of welfare in China has led to various perspectives. The social protest perspective posits that local governments aim to prevent social unrest and maintain legitimacy by expanding social spending and improving people's welfare. On the other hand, scholars adopting a perspective of fragmented authoritarianism suggest that the bureaucratic structure and financial conditions at the local level in China may also influence social welfare outcomes. Furthermore, according to theories of productivist welfare capitalism or developmental welfare states, local governments may prioritize distinctive social policies based on regional economic characteristics and development needs. This paper addresses whether regional disparities in welfare still exist in China and explores the factors associated with expanding local welfare.
This study empirically analyzes the relationships between local social protests, bureaucracy, finance, industrial production, economic development, and provincial welfare disparities. We collect political and financial data from 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2021, focusing on "Dibao," the long-standing, prominent, and fairest social policy applied in China, and conduct panel analysis. Based on preliminary empirical research, it is evident that local Dibao varies significantly due to factors such as the proportion of local public security expenditure, the proportion of other social welfare beneficiaries, and the degree of industrialization and urbanization. On the other hand, this study finds that urban and rural Dibao follow heterogeneous distribution logics, with instances of more significant urban-rural disparities resulting in fewer pastoral Dibao resources. Consequently, this research concludes that the local economic environment and the financial status of local governments have the most significant influence on Dibao. In other words, better-developed local governments can provide more comprehensive urban and rural social welfare resources while capturing more possible human capital in the future. Therefore, not only will there be a phenomenon of redistribution from the poor to the rich, but regional disparities in social welfare may also persist in China and even worsen.

Author

• Yu - Tzu Lo