Expanding the N: Election Forecasting in Difficult Environments

• In Event: Political Forecasting Methods: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Abstract

This paper examines what it takes to forecast elections in polities that have more difficult environments in which to make a creditable forecast. I propose that these difficult polities are defined as those in which at least one of the following applies: (1) data are less available due to the recency of competitive elections, (2) the electoral environment is less stable due to changes in election rules and/or parties that contest the elections, (3) the polities themselves have received less election forecasting attention (especially those polities outside of North America and western Europe), and (4) elections are less periodic and more haphazard depending on the stability of the government.

The paper will address the following questions: Can a respectable forecast be made in electorally unstable environments? Should time and effort be devoted to such forecasts, or is the frustration too great? Can a heuristic typology be created to give election forecasters a better sense of when to engage in this work in difficult environments? I propose that respectable forecasts can emerge from difficult environments, using the examples of Israel and Taiwan, among other polities. I will also propose a heuristic typology of engagement. My overall orientation is that a clear-eyed awareness of the challenges in difficult polities, yet also a sense of the potential for reasonable forecasts in these polities, will allow forecasters greater confidence in venturing into new frontiers of election forecasting.

Author

• Ross E. Burkhart