Pushed Out: The Effects of Gentrification on Birth Rates

• In Event: Changing Neighborhoods: The Dynamics of Gentrification and Displacement

Abstract

Gentrification is thought to cause demographic shifts in neighborhoods as inflows of wealthier and more educated individuals displace longstanding residents (Glass 1960). In the United States, gentrification is particularly associated with the displacement of racial and ethnic minorities, given the high concentration of people of color in urban centers (Hyra 2017). However, much of this model is predicated on people being pushed out and opting to leave. In this project, I explore whether an alternative mechanism is at also play. Here, I posit that gentrification might change a community’s demographics through shifts in birth rates among both new and longstanding residents.
While there is little scholarship on the specific role that gentrification has on birth rates, there is significant work on the effects of gentrification on health outcomes, like maternal morbidity (Gao, et al. 2023) and pre-term birth (Huynh Maroko 2014). Socioeconomic gentrification is associated with improved maternal and infant outcomes across studies (Gao, et al. 2023; Beck et al. 2022). Moreover, a strand of scholarship explores the effects of gentrification on children’s educational outcomes (Johnston 2017; Keels et al. 2013; Pearman 2019). Still, little research thus far has examined birth rates specifically and the role that gentrification might play in shaping the decision to have children in urban neighborhoods.
I posit that incoming residents with higher incomes and greater levels of education will experience higher birth rates as gentrification takes hold. By contrast, longstanding residents will decrease the rate at which they have children in the wake of gentrification. This is because previous research demonstrates that higher home prices tend to deter the decision to have children, except for those who stand to benefit from rising prices, like homeowners (Dettling and Kearney (2014). As it applies to gentrification then, longstanding residents will likely be financially harmed by wealthier inflows, but newer residents will stand to benefit financially from their decision to move to a relatively affordable neighborhood, thus shaping the fiscal calculus to have children. At the same time, Lee and Velez (2023) demonstrate racial and economic gentrification can have differential effects, where the former improves minority outcomes, while the latter harms them. Nevertheless, I expect that birth rates among longstanding residents will decline, while newer residents will experience increased birth rates as gentrification transforms the community.
I test this data by analyzing Census-tract data from the American Community Survey from 2006 to 2020. Specifically, I assess what effect gentrification—both economic and racial (Lee and Velez 2023) have on changes in birth rates in 486 urbanized areas using a series of time series regressions. While birth rates are not available based on tenure in the current residence, I instead examine changes in birth rates disaggregated by race and education. Preliminary results suggest that racial gentrification depresses birth rates among women of color, but economic gentrification improves birth rates among all neighborhood residents, regardless of race or education, consistent with previous literature. Ultimately, these results suggest that changes in demographics in gentrifying neighborhoods might not be caused just by displacing longstanding residents, but also by affecting the decision to have children among communities. If gentrification is not just occurring through displacement, but also through birth, it suggests that policy could intervene to better support longstanding residents who are parents or thinking of becoming parents.

Author

• Markie McBrayer, University of Idaho