Multi-scale Electoral Patterns in Canada, 2000–2021

• In Event: Electoral Democracy in Canada

Abstract

Scholars have observed an increasingly strong relationship between population density and partisan support in the United States, with Democratic support coming from higher-density urban counties and Republican support from lower-density rural ones. We analyze the density-partisan relationship in Canada with an original data set consisting of election returns by polling division for the eight Federal elections between 2000 and 2021. The large number polling divisions in Canada (over 50,000) permit analyses from the micro-scale of the precinct (200-500 people) to the level of districts (up to about 100,000 people). In addition to the fine geographic detail provided by these data, Canada’s multi-party system permits a more systematic, nuanced analysis than the American case. The preliminary results show that the centre-left Liberal Party follows pattern similar to the Democratic Party in the U.S., but other Canadian parties do not display strong density-partisan relationships.

Authors

• Christopher Yurris, McGill University

• Benjamin Forest, McGill University