The Buffer Balance: How Medium and Minor States Influence Global Dynamics

• In Event: Middle Powers, Competition, and Conflict

Abstract

In the post-WWII international system, the dynamics of power and relationships among great, medium, and small powers play a pivotal role. Great powers, as highlighted by realist thinkers like Morgenthau (1948) and Waltz (1979), have historically shaped the international system. Their influence extends beyond military and economic strength to the establishment of norms and institutions that govern international relations, and involves a mix of coercion and persuasion in their dealings with weaker and stronger states, respectively (e.g., De Carvalho and Neumann 2007).

Buffer states, however, hold a unique and often underappreciated position in this system. Located between larger, often antagonistic powers, they serve as zones of separation that prevent direct conflict. Poast (2013) highlights that buffer states in alliances with trade provisions experience fewer violations and are less likely to face occupation. They also induce ontological insecurity among more powerful neighbors (Bayly 2015) and especially for the period before 1945, face existential threats more than non-buffer states (Fazal 2007). Their diplomatic options are often limited to neutrality (Partem 1983), but this doesn't diminish their significance in global politics. During the Cold War, these states have leveraged their strategic positions to secure aid from superpowers like the U.S. and the USSR, as seen in Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, and Egypt. They prevent military confrontations and offer cultural and economic opportunities, as in the case of Belgium and Mongolia (Mackinder 2004).

A deeper examination reveals that buffer states play roles in global dynamics that are sometimes more fundamental than those of the great powers — a point missing from the current literature. They exert influence through shifting alignments with different power blocs, displaying a strategic flexibility that makes them valuable partners in global politics. This fluidity in alignment impacts regional geopolitics and the broader world order, as illustrated by Egypt under President Nasser and non-aligned countries like Yugoslavia and India during the Cold War. The diplomatic choices of buffer states often set precedents for international diplomacy, influencing other states' diplomatic engagements. Buffer states also significantly influence regional stability and conflict scenarios. Their preferences can lead to a regional realignment of alliances, as seen in Afghanistan's shifting allegiances during the 20th century. They also become conduits for the diffusion of cultural, political, and economic norms, blending values and practices from different blocs to create unique hybrid models, as seen in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Furthermore, buffer states can serve as bridges for economic integration between rival power blocs, opening new trade routes and fostering economic interdependence. Kazakhstan, for example, has become a key node in China's Belt and Road Initiative while maintaining strong ties with Russia. Singapore, though not a traditional buffer state, serves as a trade intermediary between India and China, influencing economic policies and trade agreements in the region.

This paper utilizes a theoretical framework of the international system based on network games to explore the relative roles of great powers and buffer states in shaping the security environment. Specifically, network games model the strategic decision-making and preference structures of countries to analyze their power deployment and relationships within the global environment. This analysis will delve into how these states navigate their relationships with major powers and their impact on global stability, with reference to both historical and contemporary examples. The paper then shifts to examining international trade data using PCA, which is utilized to distill complex trade data into simpler, interpretable patterns. By reducing the dimensionality of the dataset, PCA helps to quantify and interpret the economic distances between these states and great powers in different periods. This part emphasizes the dependency of buffer states on different great powers from the economic dimension as well as the changes to such dependency over time. To illustrate these ideas in action, it will particularly focus on the evolving roles of buffer states during the Cold War and amidst the current US-China rivalry, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. The paper concludes with a forward-looking perspective, speculating on future trajectories in the Indo-Pacific region and emphasizing the strategic importance of buffer states in maintaining global balance and stability.

Overall, this analysis provides a comprehensive look at buffer states in the global order – their significance, constraints, and potential to independently shape geopolitics. It combines theoretical models, data analysis, and historical cases to elucidate the multifaceted roles of buffer states. Their nimble diplomacy and flexible alignments underscore their importance in managing major power competition.

Author

• Yuke Li, Yale University