MAGA: The Tea Party Meets Donald Trump

• In Event: Understanding the Drivers of Polarization

Abstract

This paper examines support for the MAGA movement among Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections and its implications for the future of Republican Party politics. We answer two questions: 1) how do MAGA supporters differ from other Republicans, and 2) will support for the MAGA movement and its agenda continue after Trump? Utilizing data from the 2022 American National Election Studies (ANES) pilot survey, we investigate the demographic characteristics, attitudes, beliefs, and political participation of Republicans who identify as MAGA supporters. Our findings reveal that approximately one-third of Republicans identify as MAGA Republicans. Like the Tea Party movement before them, MAGA supporters are more likely to identify as conservative and to be male, white, and evangelical in their religious orientation. MAGA supporters also express higher levels of racial resentment, feel more threatened by ongoing demographic changes, and express stronger support for anti-immigration measures, abortion bans, and punishments for those who perform abortions. They are also significantly more likely to express skepticism that Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election and to view the January 6th protests positively. Paradoxically, MAGA Republicans hold more extreme “anti-system” views—expressing greater dissatisfaction with American democracy and lower feelings of external political efficacy—yet they display significantly higher rates political participation and are more likely to turnout than non-MAGA-identifying Republicans. Overall, our results suggest that MAGA Republicans have become a sizeable and potentially enduring faction within the Republican party. We conclude by noting the similarities between the characteristics of the Tea Party in 2012 and the contemporary MAGA movement, which we argue both reflect a distinct form of reactionary conservative politics fueled by feelings of “status threat” and authoritarian predispositions, including social dominance orientation.

Authors

• Edgar V. Cook, Duke University

• John H. Aldrich, Duke University

• Laura Stoker, University of California, Berkeley

• Lonna Rae Atkeson, Florida State University

• Phuong Pham, Duke University