Provocation and Popular Support

• In Event: Popular Support and War

Abstract

Provocation is a well-rehearsed though largely understudied strategy used by violent non-state groups. The strategy hinges on militants provoking outsized attacks against the militants’ own community, with the twin aims of turning public opinion against their adversary while garnering additional support and attention for themselves. Neither of these aims represents a longer-term goal, though at least one is a requirement for group survival: support. Under what conditions does a strategy of provocation contribute to increases in popular support for militant groups? In this paper, I lay out a theoretical framework for explaining how militant groups may use provocation to gain popular support and the conditions under which they are likely to succeed or fail in these efforts. Drawing on prior research and a unique dataset, I identify changes in militant group strategy over time. I draw insights from cases, alongside assessments of variations in strategy and support. In the process, I address difficulties inherent in studying these phenomena (e.g., identification, measurement, multicausality). I conclude with a discussion of potential policy implications.

Author

• Susanne Martin, University of Nevada, Reno