Local Science: Assessing the Unit of Analysis for Terrorism Research

• In Event: Innovations in the Empirical Study of Terrorism

Abstract

Two common assumptions in terrorism research are that (1) terrorism is a strategic tactic used by groups and is, therefore, not random, and (2) the timing and targets of attacks are part of a planned strategy with a preconceived objective or goal. These assumptions imply that the incidence of terrorism is not uniform across space and time and that the triggers of terrorism are context-dependent. If these assumptions are correct, it should be possible to identify spatial and spatiotemporal patterns in terrorism data. In particular, it should be possible to identify clusters. Existing research on the causes of terrorism supports this notion of clustering, even if the word “cluster” is never explicitly used. However, much of the research done using quantitative and GIS methods has employed a unit of analysis that does not align with the theoretical assumptions made in the literature. Specifically, research has (1) focused on analyzing cross-national data to understand the correlates of terrorism, such as regime type, economic conditions, and regional neighborhoods, or (2) focused on understanding the organizational components of groups utilizing terrorism. I suggest shifting the unit of analysis from the state or organization to clusters. Using a newly compiled and georeferenced dataset for Northern Ireland from 1996 to 2000, I employ point pattern analysis (OPTICS) to identify spatiotemporal clusters of terrorism in Belfast. I then use qualitative comparative analysis to assess whether some hypothesized precipitants and causes of terrorism can help explain the causes of terrorism in Belfast when using a unit of analysis that aligns with the theoretical assumptions made in the literature about the importance of both the timing and targets of terrorist attacks. Specifically, I look for evidence of outbidding, strategic campaigns, and violence around elections including violence surrounding the Good Friday Agreement.

Author

• Shannon Colleen Hartmann, University of Nevada, Reno