Campaign Agendas and Issue Group Strategy in Congressional Primaries

• In Event: Impact of Money in Politics on Political Elites and Institutions

Abstract

Which candidates do issue PACs support in House primaries? Competing theories suggest a focus on either friendly incumbents or new potential allies, yet evaluating divergent predictions requires data on candidates' agendas. I leverage original issue platform text from campaign websites, FEC receipts, and bill summaries to measure campaign attention, PAC funding, and legislative activity across nine major issue areas from 2016 to 2022. Within-candidate analyses show that candidates enjoy greater support from groups centered around their campaign priorities, with larger absolute effects for incumbents and larger relative effects for non-incumbents. Further investigation via first-differences reveals an incumbency boost in issue group funding disproportionately concentrated among those who campaigned on the issue. Differences are not driven by legislative activity: issue PACs are more responsive to campaign attention than to bill introductions. Results suggest that groups rely on campaign rhetoric to identify and cultivate long-term relationships with potential champions of their cause over rewarding incumbents for past lawmaking activities.

Author

• Mellissa Meisels, Yale University