Black Americans in Primaries: Results from Presidential & Down Ballot Elections

• In Event: To Save the Soul of America: Black Politics and the State of American Democracy

Abstract

In this paper I externally validate how Black Americans make vote choice decisions in primary elections. I also show how Black Americans' voting behavior is unique from that of white Americans in primary elections. I argue that due to Black Americans’ unique historical political experience, Black Americans weigh electability as the most important criteria for vote choice in primary elections. To test this theoretical claim, I analyze data of Black and white Americans from presidential elections from 1984-2020, and show results from a unique multi-state survey of Black and white Americans from 2024 Senate and gubernatorial elections.

This paper is a book chapter in a larger book manuscript. In the manuscript draws from literature in race, ethnicity, and politics that details Black Americans’ party affiliation and preference for same race candidates. I also draw from literature that analyzes the role of voters in primary elections that concludes that voters use candidate ideology in primary elections, and that voters exhibit strategic behavior in primary elections. I argue that due to Black Americans’ unique historical political experience, Black Americans weigh electability as the most important criteria for vote choice in primary elections, and therefore forego their preferences for same race and same policy candidates. In this chapter I provide evidence that Black Americans do indeed vote for electable candidates in primary elections.

Author

• Jasmine Smith, George Washington University