Disinformation Threats to Democratic Collaboration: Lessons from the Ukraine War

• In Event: Russian Disinformation Activities

Abstract

In February 2022, when Russia mounted its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western democracies came together in a remarkable show of unity in support of Ukraine and of democratic principles. They referred to Ukraine’s fight as a fight for democracy and a global rules based order. They imposed sanctions on the aggressor, undertook massive shifts in energy independence and military spending, welcomed large numbers of Ukrainian refugees, and collaborated to provide the beleaguered country with financial assistance, intelligence and strategic support, and military aid – all critical to its survival in its David versus Goliath struggle with its larger and more powerful neighbor. Today, almost two years into the fighting, the situation looks somewhat more bleak. While the two armies stand bogged down in an attritional phase of war where lines move little, Ukraine’s military now runs low on munitions and Ukraine’s top general has publicly lamented the current state of fighting as reaching a “stalemate” in which no major breakthrough is immediately likely. In the absence of some course correction, observers increasingly point to a long-term Russian advantage. At the same time, discussions of continued aid on both sides of the Atlantic face renewed political challenges.

The fight on the battlefield will be crucial to Ukraine’s future – and arguably also to global security and democratic order. But this fight itself hinges on the continued unity and collaboration across Western democratic partners that have provided critical aid and assistance to enable Ukraine’s remarkable show of resistance until this point. This coalition is premised on trust and shared values across Ukraine and its democratic partners. It depends upon electoral outcomes, domestic politics, and multinational organization processes across Europe, the United States, and beyond. As such, it has many seems of vulnerability – even without deliberate adversarial action. It has also been targeted persistently by Russian information and influence campaigns throughout the war and before, seeking to undermine unified support for Ukraine’s war effort across Western democracies. In so doing, Moscow seeks also to undermine future confidence in one of the West’s greatest strengths – its strength in numbers of allies and partners willing to collaborate around a shared vision.

In recent years, democracies have faced fundamental challenges in addressing the threat of adversarial disinformation aimed at undermining trust in and functioning of key democratic institutions and processes. These challenges are sufficiently daunting at the national level. They have led to significant if nascent innovations to mitigate impacts, foster trust and resilience, and simultaneously protect core democratic values. But the challenge does not stop at national borders. Nondemocratic competitors frequently use coordinated cyber-enabled disinformation and influence campaigns strategically at a regional or international level. They aim to undermine cooperation between democracies, break alliance cohesion, and otherwise use interference in the democratic politics of individual countries to foster broader geopolitical and strategic gains. No event in the last decade better illustrates this challenge than the war in Ukraine and Russia’s multi-pronged efforts to influence transatlantic cooperation in support of Ukraine. But the war has also fostered new forms of strategic awareness and adaptation.

This article examines the role of cyber-enabled information and influence in relation to transatlantic support for Ukraine as a case study of the challenge of addressing transnational coordinated strategic disinformation campaigns. Specifically, the article examines Russia’s uses of multi-pronged disinformation and influence campaigns in attempts to influence transatlantic support for Ukraine by democratic partners and allies, scrutinizing how the Kremlin has targeted within- and cross-national vulnerabilities as part of broader strategic goals. Investigating what has been done by democratic target countries, individually and collaboratively, to mitigate worst outcomes and potential strategic impacts, the article in-turn examines existing mechanisms of coordination and cooperation by which democracies have sought to address this strategically motivated threat, their current adequacy to the task, as well as ongoing learning and adaptation in this area.

While the Ukraine war has highlighted the need for more robust and strategically aligned collaboration across democracies to address this challenge and defend collaborative institutions, the importance of such efforts goes beyond the one conflict and will prove critical in next phases of global strategic competition. The article also stresses, however, the risk of inappropriate solutions that foster politicized threat inflation and further polarization and distrust within democratic systems.

Author

• Jaclyn A Kerr, National Defense University