Westphalian Collapse under Climate Change

• In Event: Democracy and Climate Stressors

Abstract

This study explores the link between state fragility and susceptibility to climate change. Previous environmental research suggests that these effects are especially evident in regions where the state system is most fragile and still developing. We ask if the newer states in the global system, particularly those within the framework of Westphalian sovereignty, face heightened risks of state collapse under the stress of climate challenges. Our research questions how climate change might disrupt the Westphalian model, suggesting that adaptability and problem-solving capabilities are crucial for coping with climate changes. Traditional political science methods fail to incorporate climate change factors when evaluating state stability, leading to skewed results. Our work aims to fill this gap by focusing on two major climate-related issues: famine and disease. We developed a logistic regression model using a unique dataset, which integrates trends in rural-to-urban migration and its subsequent effects on famine and disease. For famine, we compiled data on food imports and domestic agricultural production. For disease, we conducted a geographic analysis of the spread of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases. The model, trained with data from previously failed states, predicts the impact of climate hotspots on the likelihood of future state collapses. Finally, we compare our model's forecasts with the latest Fragile States Index Scores to evaluate the accuracy of our predictions regarding state failure. This comparison allows us to assess the effectiveness of our model and contribute to a more nuanced understanding of state fragility in the context of climate change. This research contributes to a better understanding of how the modern state system is impacted by changing environments and provides insights into the adaptations states need to survive.

Authors

• Megan Barnhart, Loyola University Chicago

• Meghan Iverson, University of Chicago