Gendered Incumbency Effects across Electoral Settings: Evidence from Taiwan

• In Event: One Election, Multiple Approaches: The Case of Taiwan

Abstract

Are incumbency effects gendered? If they do, how does the gendered dynamics differ across different electoral settings? In this paper, we estimate the incumbency effect and the heterogeneous treatment effects across genders of three electoral settings in Taiwan. Using a regression discontinuity design with 27,412 observations from 2008 to 2018, three outcomes are examined: the likelihood of running in the next election, the probability of winning in the next election, and the vote share in the next election. We found evidence of gender heterogeneity in village elections, where women candidates consistently had a larger incumbency effect compared to men. However, we found no evidence of gender heterogeneity in national legislative elections and city council elections.

Authors

• Yu-Siang Huang, National Taiwan University

• Taishi Muraoka, Academia Sinica