Earth, Wind, Water, Fire: Mineral Deposits, Climate Stress & Conflict in Africa

• In Event: Climate, Conflict and Crime: New Research on the Climate-Conflict Nexus

Abstract

How does the interplay of geological mineral resources and climate-affected agricultural and livestock resources influence conflict patterns in sub-Saharan Africa? Climate change and mineral extraction both exert negative influence on the arability and productivity of land in sub-Saharan Africa. Where climatic shifts and mining meet, the resulting livelihood shifts may compound to foment grievances and lead to population displacements. These grievances and displacements may then increase the propensity for conflict in affected regions. Using a novel dataset on the presence of geological resources and mining activity coupled with data on variability and trends in rainfall and temperature over a 25-year period, we analyze the combined impacts of mining and climate change on conflict levels in sub-Saharan Africa. As mineral resource extraction in the region grows and climate change continues apace, our results will provide new insights into the links between natural resources and conflict and allow for better projections of conflict patterns into the future.

Authors

• Christina A Boyes, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas

• Garrett Michael Albistegui Adler, Princeton University