Concept-Embedded Necessary-Conditions: A Framework for Negative Case Selection

• In Event: Foundational Concepts and New Directions in Qualitative Research

Abstract

Political scientists devote significant time and resources to studying rare events such as interstate and civil wars, revolutions, coups, mass protests, genocides, state collapse, and democratic breakdowns. At a given moment, the vast majority of countries do not experience these events, and the number of negative cases (non-wars, non-coup nonrevolutions, etc.) is much higher than the number of positive cases. Given this disparity, the main challenge for the study of rare events is how to select negative cases, particularly how to distinguish negative cases from irrelevant cases (Mahoney and Goertz 2004), which has important implications for theory development and testing. Despite this challenge, little has been written on negative case selection.

This article develops the concept of embedded necessary conditions to mitigate the problem of negative case selection. According to this framework, the outcome of interest or the concepts of interest are composed of multiple necessary conditions that can be symbolized by logic and set-theoretic relations that can be visualized with Venn diagrams, which helps the researcher to identify the negative cases that are/were close to realization. Thus, these set-theoretic relations, embedded necessary conditions, and their lack thereof in a case can guide researchers in selecting negative cases. My framework is inspired by but is different than and has advantages over ‘’the possibility principle’’ developed by Mahoney and Goertz (2004).

According to the possibility principle, negative cases should be cases where the outcome of interest is possible, where “cases are relevant if their value on at least one independent variable is positively related to the outcome of interest.” (Mahoney and Goertz 2004, 657). According to the rule of exclusion, “a case is considered irrelevant if it possesses a value on a variable that is known from previous research to make the outcome of interest impossible.” (Mahoney and Goertz 2004, 658). Therefore, the possibility principle presupposes solid theoretical expectations and knowing independent variables that cause and/or prevent the outcome of interest from happening. In contrast, the framework I propose does not presuppose solid theoretical expectations regarding independent variables but solely depends on the conceptualization of the dependent variable. For this reason, this framework can help researchers develop theories inductively in a more systematic fashion. Second and relatedly, I argue that the framework I propose is what some social scientists, particularly those who develop theories inductively and iteratively, are already doing, albeit implicitly. Third and relatedly, by discussing several influential studies in the civil war, revolution, and political regimes/authoritarianism literature, I show that this approach to negative case selection leads to both conceptual and theoretical innovation that significantly advances the literature. Lastly, relaxing my own rules regarding negative case selection with minimal assumptions, that is by assuming that human action requires both capability and intention to act- I discuss how we can further use the logic of embedded conditions to develop new theories.

Author

• Ulaş Erdoğdu, Northwestern University