American Carnage: How Belief in the “Big Lie” Influences Democratic Attitudes

• In Event: Democratic Norms, Backsliding, and Public Opinion

Abstract

In what ways has election disinformation by former President Trump and other Republican elites influenced public attitudes toward democracy? Using data from multiple public opinion surveys and embedded survey experiments, we show how belief in the “Big Lie” and concerns over the integrity of US elections are significant predictors of democratic satisfaction, support for local election officials, and support for democratic principles in general. We find that Americans who agree with the tenets of the “Big Lie” are most likely to be dissatisfied with democracy and less likely to express support for democratic principles. These findings have important implications not just for the 2024 presidential election, but for the future of American democracy.

Authors

• Thomas J. Hayes, University of Connecticut

• Antonio Ugues, St. Mary's College of Maryland