Climate Indicators and Migration Intentions: Evidence from Africa

• In Event: Climate, Refugees, and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The Africa Climate Mobility Initiative predicts that by 2050, 113 million people will be forced to relocate within Africa due to climate change and associated risks. Yet recent Afrobarometer survey data indicate that only a tiny fraction (less than 0.2 percent) of Africans who are considering migrating to another country attribute this intention to natural disasters and related causes. Instead, the vast majority (73 percent) of respondents who intend to migrate would do so for economic reasons (“find work”, “economic hardship”, or “poverty”). We combine geocoded survey data from 45,823 respondents across 34 countries in Africa with climate indicators for those locations, specifically rainfall and temperature. We examine whether people living in areas that have experienced more climate change (in terms of deviations from long-term averages) are more likely to express interest in migrating, regardless of the explanation they provide. We also explore whether this relationship is influenced by respondents’ level of knowledge about climate change. We anticipate that people who believe that human activity causes climate change and who live in more affected areas will be more likely to express an intention to migrate than other respondents. Preliminary evidence suggests that people in areas most affected by climate change are somewhat more likely to want to migrate, though additional analysis is necessary. Due to limitations with the Afrobarometer questions and response options, we fielded additional original questions on a nationally representative survey of 2,065 Kenyans in April 2023. By merging these geocoded survey data with objective climate indicators, we gain a better understanding of the mechanisms through which climate change may contribute to increased mobility within Africa in the coming decades.

Author

• Beth Elise Whitaker, University of North Carolina, Charlotte