Bite the Hand That Feeds: Sponsor-Rebel Relations after Regime Transition

• In Event: Proxy War

Abstract

State-sponsored rebel groups are a defining feature of modern international politics, often catalyzing diplomatic tensions and, at times, triggering interstate conflicts. The prevailing wisdom suggests that states sponsor rebels in rival nations to wage proxy wars or install regimes more amenable to their interests, frequently selecting groups with shared ethnolinguistic or religious identities to ensure preference alignment. This strategic alignment is theorized to foster warmer relations between a rebel group-turned-government and its former patrons than the sponsors’ relationship with the previous regime. Yet, empirical evidence substantiating this outcome remains elusive. This study examines how the transition of an externally sponsored rebel group from insurgency to governance influences its relationship with former sponsors. Our study delves into the post-conflict dynamics of state-sponsored insurgencies by evaluating dyadic diplomatic relations from 1946 to 2012 using data on instances of Militarized Interstate Disputes (MID) and similarity in UN General Assembly voting patterns. Our preliminary findings suggest that while sponsored regimes initially align with their benefactors, this alignment does not significantly surpass that of non-sponsored regime transitions. This raises questions about the long-term strategic value of rebel sponsorship and challenges the prevailing narrative of its efficacy in shaping international alliances.

Authors

• Myung Jung Kim, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign

• Xiaoyan Qiu, Washington University in St. Louis