The Case of Brexit: How to Open a Critical Juncture without an Exogenous Shock?

• In Event: Colonial and Historical Legacies: Implications for Citizenship and Conflict

Abstract

Historical institutionalists have long established that European Union (EU) membership produces path-dependent dynamics (Büthe, 2016: 37-66; Capoccia and Kelemen, 2007: 341-69; Héretier, 2007; Moravcsik, 2005; Pierson, 1996: 123-163). In path dependence (PD) with increasing returns/self-reinforcing sequences, change is triggered by an external crisis that destroys the existing institutional structure. The exogenous shock opens a critical juncture (CJ), or a period of high contingency, during which a new institutional arrangement with a long-lasting legacy is adopted. The concepts of PD, CJ and abrupt, exogenous institutional change are tightly connected (Capoccia and Kelemen, 341-69; Capoccia, 2016: 1095-1127; Pierson, 2004; Goldsmith Weil,
The Case of Brexit: How to Open a Critical Juncture without an Exogenous Shock? 1
2017: 52-67; Soifer, 2012: 1572-1597). Juxtaposed to them are modes of gradual endogenous transformation including displacement, layering, conversion, drift, exhaustion and PD with reactive sequences (Campbell, 2004; Hacker, 2005: 40-82; Mahoney, 2000: 507-548; Mahoney and Thelen, 2010: 1-37; Mahoney and Thelen, 2015: 3-38; Schickler, 2001; Thelen, 2003: 208- 240; Thelen, 2004; Streek and Thelen, 2005, 1-39).
In light of this literature, Brexit presents a puzzle: Why would a Member State leave the EU if membership engenders path-dependent dynamics? How can a Member State extricate itself from such complex and long-standing institutional structure in the absence of an exogenous shock? Consequently, Brexit offers an opportunity to evaluate existing concepts and develop new theoretical insights about institutional change. The endeavor is important because different modes of institutional change may apply to different institutions and contexts (Mahoney and Thelen, 2010; Mahoney and Thelen, 2015).
The present article uses the CJ scholarship and the HI literature on institutional change to analyse the UK’s departure from the EU. It finds that the juncture for Brexit opened gradually through the interaction of exogenous and endogenous factors and the actions of political entrepreneurs, operating in a multi-level context. Such hybrid critical junctures are not often examined by the literature. While scholars acknowledge that a CJ could open without an exogenous shock (Capoccia, 2015: 6; Collier and Munck, 2017: 3; Hogan, 2006: 657-679, 660.), there are few empirical analyses of such cases and the phenomenon requires further theorising. Much of literature to date has focused on explaining institutional choice inside CJs. In contrast, the present article seeks to explain how a CJ is created in the absence of an abrupt exogenous shock.

Author

• Nina Simeonova Barzachka, College of the Holy Cross